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Archer Daniels Q2 Earnings: Will Soft Segment Trends Mar Results?
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Key Takeaways
{\"0\":\"ADM is expected to post Q2 EPS of $0.88 and revenues of $21.1B, suggesting 14.6% and 5.1% y/y dips.\",\"1\":\"Ag Services and Oilseeds faces pressure from weak crush margins, low oil prices, and policy uncertainty.\",\"2\":\"Nutrition revenues are forecast to rise 0.8% as ADM boosts capacity, innovation and structural efficiency.\"}
Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 5, before market open. The company is likely to report bottom and top-line declines when it posts the quarterly results.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 88 cents per share, which indicates a plunge of 14.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark has fallen 7.4% in the past 30 days. For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $21.1 billion, implying a 5.1% dip from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 1.5%. Its earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.4%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
Key Factors to Influence ADM’s Upcoming Results
Archer Daniels is grappling with tough market conditions. One of the key factors contributing to its underperformance is the sluggishness in its Ag Services and Oilseeds segment. The company has been affected by numerous headwinds in the agriculture cycle, with some market dislocations and increased cost inflation. Depressed vegetable oil demand and low prices, owing to higher market supply and uncertainty, are likely to have hurt the Crushing subsegment.
In Refined Products and Other, margins have been pressured by biofuel and trade policy uncertainties, which have hurt biodiesel margins. Weak oil demand and higher crush capacity are also expected to have affected refining margins in the to-be-reported quarter.
On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management stated that it has been monitoring the global trade and biofuel policy landscape, within Ag Services and Oilseeds segment, to enable the export market for its vast origination footprint and leverage increasing demand conditions later in the year. Given the continued pressure on crush margins, the company expects the AS&O segment’s results to be lower year over year through the rest of 2025. ADM noted that the current crush margins for the second quarter have been trending lower than those reported in the first quarter.
Management remains cautious about the second-half outlook for crush margin improvement, as the present domestic crush replacement margins are below the company’s outlook. ADM has seen some signs of weakening customer demand, mainly in carb solutions and has cut its volume expectations for certain markets and products. With the uncertainty associated with tariff policy and macroeconomic conditions, management has not issued the segment operating profit outlook for the upcoming quarters.
Archer Daniels Midland Company Price and EPS Surprise
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Ag Services and Oilseeds segment’s revenues is pegged at $16.2 billion, suggesting a 6.7% year-over-year decline. The consensus mark for the Carbohydrate Solutions segment is $2.9 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 0.9%.
However, ADM has been seeing a recovery in its Nutrition business for a while now, driven by its focus on optimizing the organizational and operational structure across Human and Animal Nutrition. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Nutrition segment’s revenues is pegged at $1.9 billion, suggesting 0.8% year-over-year growth.
The company has also been actively managing productivity and innovation as well as aligning work to the interconnected trends in food security, health and wellbeing. Its processing capacities are improving across its production operations, which consist of the ramp-up of Green Bison to full capacity and growing production. Additionally, the company has been advancing key innovation initiatives in areas like biosolutions, and health and wellness, supporting increasing customer demand in these parts of the business. The company’s focus on strategic simplification is expected to have aided margins in the to-be-reported quarter.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Archer Daniels this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Archer Daniels currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.55% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Valuation Picture
From a valuation perspective, Archer Daniels offers an attractive opportunity, trading at a discount relative to historical and industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 12.29X, which is below the five-year high of 18.93X and the Agriculture - Operations industry’s average of 14.77X, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The recent market movements show that ADM’s shares have rallied 13.4% in the past three months compared with the industry's 11.6% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Corteva (CTVA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.89, which implies 3.3% year-over-year growth. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Corteva’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $6.2 billion, which indicates growth of 1.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CTVA has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 7.2%, on average.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +4.73% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2025 EPS is pegged at 91 cents, which implies 16.7% year-over-year growth.
The consensus mark for Ollie's Bargain’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $657.8 million, which indicates growth of 13.7% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. OLLI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2%, on average.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.09% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus estimate for Keurig’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.2 billion, which indicates growth of 6.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 EPS is pegged at 54 cents, which implies 5.9% year-over-year growth. KDP delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.1%, on average.
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Archer Daniels Q2 Earnings: Will Soft Segment Trends Mar Results?
Key Takeaways
Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM - Free Report) is slated to report second-quarter 2025 results on Aug. 5, before market open. The company is likely to report bottom and top-line declines when it posts the quarterly results.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the company’s earnings is pegged at 88 cents per share, which indicates a plunge of 14.6% from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure. The consensus mark has fallen 7.4% in the past 30 days. For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at $21.1 billion, implying a 5.1% dip from the year-ago quarter’s reported figure.
In the last reported quarter, the company delivered an earnings surprise of 1.5%. Its earnings missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 5.4%, on average, in the trailing four quarters.
Key Factors to Influence ADM’s Upcoming Results
Archer Daniels is grappling with tough market conditions. One of the key factors contributing to its underperformance is the sluggishness in its Ag Services and Oilseeds segment. The company has been affected by numerous headwinds in the agriculture cycle, with some market dislocations and increased cost inflation. Depressed vegetable oil demand and low prices, owing to higher market supply and uncertainty, are likely to have hurt the Crushing subsegment.
In Refined Products and Other, margins have been pressured by biofuel and trade policy uncertainties, which have hurt biodiesel margins. Weak oil demand and higher crush capacity are also expected to have affected refining margins in the to-be-reported quarter.
On the last reported quarter’s earnings call, management stated that it has been monitoring the global trade and biofuel policy landscape, within Ag Services and Oilseeds segment, to enable the export market for its vast origination footprint and leverage increasing demand conditions later in the year. Given the continued pressure on crush margins, the company expects the AS&O segment’s results to be lower year over year through the rest of 2025. ADM noted that the current crush margins for the second quarter have been trending lower than those reported in the first quarter.
Management remains cautious about the second-half outlook for crush margin improvement, as the present domestic crush replacement margins are below the company’s outlook. ADM has seen some signs of weakening customer demand, mainly in carb solutions and has cut its volume expectations for certain markets and products. With the uncertainty associated with tariff policy and macroeconomic conditions, management has not issued the segment operating profit outlook for the upcoming quarters.
Archer Daniels Midland Company Price and EPS Surprise
Archer Daniels Midland Company price-eps-surprise | Archer Daniels Midland Company Quote
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Ag Services and Oilseeds segment’s revenues is pegged at $16.2 billion, suggesting a 6.7% year-over-year decline. The consensus mark for the Carbohydrate Solutions segment is $2.9 billion, indicating a year-over-year decline of 0.9%.
However, ADM has been seeing a recovery in its Nutrition business for a while now, driven by its focus on optimizing the organizational and operational structure across Human and Animal Nutrition. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the Nutrition segment’s revenues is pegged at $1.9 billion, suggesting 0.8% year-over-year growth.
The company has also been actively managing productivity and innovation as well as aligning work to the interconnected trends in food security, health and wellbeing. Its processing capacities are improving across its production operations, which consist of the ramp-up of Green Bison to full capacity and growing production. Additionally, the company has been advancing key innovation initiatives in areas like biosolutions, and health and wellness, supporting increasing customer demand in these parts of the business. The company’s focus on strategic simplification is expected to have aided margins in the to-be-reported quarter.
What the Zacks Model Unveils
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Archer Daniels this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the odds of an earnings beat. But that is not the case here. You can uncover the best stocks before they are reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Archer Daniels currently has an Earnings ESP of +6.55% and a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).
Valuation Picture
From a valuation perspective, Archer Daniels offers an attractive opportunity, trading at a discount relative to historical and industry benchmarks. With a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 12.29X, which is below the five-year high of 18.93X and the Agriculture - Operations industry’s average of 14.77X, the stock offers compelling value for investors seeking exposure to the sector.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
The recent market movements show that ADM’s shares have rallied 13.4% in the past three months compared with the industry's 11.6% growth.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Stocks With the Favorable Combination
Here are some companies, which, according to our model, have the right combination of elements to beat on earnings this reporting cycle.
Corteva (CTVA - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +2.11% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at $1.89, which implies 3.3% year-over-year growth. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Corteva’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $6.2 billion, which indicates growth of 1.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. CTVA has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 7.2%, on average.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI - Free Report) presently has an Earnings ESP of +4.73% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter fiscal 2025 EPS is pegged at 91 cents, which implies 16.7% year-over-year growth.
The consensus mark for Ollie's Bargain’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $657.8 million, which indicates growth of 13.7% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter. OLLI delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2%, on average.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +0.09% and a Zacks Rank of 3. The consensus estimate for Keurig’s quarterly revenues is pegged at $4.2 billion, which indicates growth of 6.9% from the figure reported in the prior-year quarter.
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for second-quarter 2025 EPS is pegged at 54 cents, which implies 5.9% year-over-year growth. KDP delivered a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 3.1%, on average.